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Latest Spread from Kalshi and Polymarket

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Atlanta routed Green Bay 35-14 on Thursday, with Bijan Robinson rushing for 194 yards and two touchdowns to lift the Falcons to 1-2. New Orleans fell 35-27 to Las Vegas after four fourth-quarter turnovers and is also 1-2. When the NFC South rivals meet Monday night, the winner could take the early lead in the division chase, pending results from other games.

Notable Week 4 line moves

Green Bay has climbed from 52% to 64% against Tampa Bay, the biggest Week 4 move since the first Sept. 22 snapshot. Miami fell from 28% to 17% at Minnesota, while Detroit rose from 55% to 65% at Carolina.

The Rams have climbed from 52% to 61% at Philadelphia, while Chicago is up from 58% to 63% against the Jets. Arizona moved from 48% to 53% at the Giants, Denver rose from 37% to 43% against San Francisco, and Dallas slipped from 50% to 44% at Houston.

NFL futures market outlook

With Week 3 complete, Buffalo leads the Kalshi 2027 Super Bowl winner market at 12.5%, followed by the Rams at 11.5% and San Francisco at 9.5%.

Behind the leaders, Baltimore and Kansas City are at 7.5%, with Seattle at 6.5%. Since Sept. 22, Buffalo rose from 11.5% to 12.5%, while the Rams slipped from 12.5% to 11.5%.

Josh Allen leads the Kalshi 2026-27 NFL MVP market at 25.5%. Through three games, Allen has thrown for five scores and rushed for another six as Buffalo opens the season at 3-0.

Brock Purdy has moved into second place at 18.5%. Rounding out the top five are Lamar Jackson at 11.5%, Joe Burrow at 8.5%, and Patrick Mahomes at 7.5%. Allen was at 27.5% on Sept. 22, while Purdy was at 9.5%.

Readers can compare prediction market apps and review current NFL promos before choosing where to trade Week 4 and season-long contracts. You can also print a Week 4 pick-em sheet.

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